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Poe keeps lead in Laylo survey

SENATOR Grace Poe retained her lead over other presidential candidates in the latest The Standard Poll following a Supreme Court order stopping the Commission of Elections from disqualifying her from the May 9 polls.

The survey, conducted by resident pollster Junie Laylo from Jan. 27 to Feb. 4 had 3,000 respondents—all of whom are registered voters with biometrics and who said they are sure to vote in next year’s elections—from 79 provinces across the country and the 17 cities in the National Capital Region. It has a national margin of error of +/- 1.8 percent.

Poe continued to enjoy a narrow lead at 29 percent, up one percentage point from 28 percent in December.

In a statement to The Standard, Poe said: “I owe this top ranking in The Standard-Laylo survey to the Filipino people, who continue to put their faith in my capacity to lead the country. They are my driving force in being unflinching in fighting for change and in pushing an inclusive platform for a progressive and just society.

“I look forward to coming face to face with more of our kababayan in the campaign period.”

Vice President Jejomar Binay and Liberal Party standard bearer Manuel Roxas II were tied at second place with 22 percent each, followed by Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte with 20 percent and Senator Miriam Santiago with 2 percent.

Binay and Santiago saw their ratings go down by one percentage point each from the December survey. Roxas’ rating remained unchanged while Duterte went up by one percentage point.

Across geographic areas, Poe led in the National Capital Region (35 percent), North and Central Luzon (37 percent), and South Luzon and Bicol (38 percent).

Roxas was the top choice of respondents from the Visayas region, while Duterte firmed up his lead in Mindanao with 44 percent, up from 36 percent in December.

Across regions, Poe was the frontrunner in Ilocos (43 percent), Central Luzon (38 percent), Calabarzon (39 percent), Mimaropa (40 percent) and Zamboanga Peninsula (28 percent). 

Binay, on the other hand, was the top choice in the Cordillera Administrative Region (40 percent) and Cagayan Valley (45 percent) while Roxas led in Bicol (39 percent), Western Visayas (43 percent), Negros Island Region (45 percent), and Eastern Visayas (30 percent). 

Duterte posted wide leads in Central Visayas (32 percent), Northern Mindanao (31 percent), Davao Region (78 percent), Cotabato Region (47 percent), Caraga (38 percent), and ARMM (37 percent).

A plurality of respondents from urban areas (35 percent) said they will vote for Poe, while Roxas emerged as the top choice among Filipino voters in rural areas with 27 percent.

Poe was also the frontrunner across all economic classes—ABC (30 percent),  D (30 percent), and E (27 percent)—and among male and female respondents with 27 percent and 32 percent, respectively. 

Poe posted a wide lead among voters ages 18-34 (34 percent) and ages 35-55 (28 percent), while she shared the top post with Binay at 25 percent each among respondents ages 56 and above.

A plurality of Catholic (30 percent), Iglesia ni Cristo (34 percent), and Born Again (28 percent) voters said they will vote for Poe if the elections were held today, while 34 percent of Muslims said they will support Duterte. Roxas, on the other hand, was the top choice among Aglipayan voters with 26 percent.

When asked for the top reasons for their choice, respondents who said they will vote for Poe said they want to try her style of governance (30 percent) and they hope she will continue the good deeds of her father, the late actor Fernando Poe Jr. (19 percent). Those who said they will not vote for her cited her inexperience (19 percent), unproven competence (16 percent) and her citizenship issue (14 percent). 

The top reasons of those who will vote for Binay are as follows: he can replicate across the country what he has accomplished in Makati (20 percent) and he has wide experience in governance (19 percent). Those who will not vote for Binay cited the corruption issues leveled against him (29 percent) and the involvement of his family in anomalous transactions (22 percent).

At least 42 percent of those who will vote for Roxas said they will do so in the hope that he will continue the government’s dole program. A plurality of who have rejected Roxas said they will not vote for him because he cannot decide for himself and is a mere lackey of President Benigno Aquino III (22 percent).

Duterte’s supporters said they will vote for him because he is a disciplinarian (22 percent) and he has addressed the problem of illegal drugs (20 percent). However, 18 percent of those who will not vote for the Davao mayor cited his iron fist style of governance.

Those who will vote for Santiago said they liked that she talked straight to the point (26 percent). Ironically, a plurality (17 percent) of those who will not vote for Santiago cited the same reason for rejecting her.

Poe’s spokesman, Valenzuela Mayor Rex Gatchalian, said the senator is thankful for the continued trust and confidence of the public.

“Their support serves as her inspiration to work harder as a senator and a candidate in the upcoming elections,” Gatchalian said.

Gatchalian said analysts have claimed that Poe’s political advertisements dispelling the misconception that she is no longer a candidate may have helped improve her ratings.

“In our opinion, though, her continued drive to visit as many provinces and regions to clarify that she is still a candidate for the presidency and her message of inclusive growth helped in the latest rounds of surveys,” he said. 

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